well, good evening, everyone.

hi, joe. good evening. how's everybody doing? good thanks for being here. and thank you to everybody. our politics and prose for making this possible, as well as to the c-span crew who are with us tonight. and welcome to everybody who was watching us as well. i'm really, really delighted to be able to have conversation about the updated of lost in the gulf with my friend and and colleague joe campbell.

and i'm sure that you'll have a lot of questions afterwards. i think we're going to, you know, start by listening to joe. i have a few questions you and we'll see how this is going. but please, you know, we are going to be looking forward to hearing from you as well later on. thank you, filippo. thanks very much. okay. thanks many thanks to the fine staff and professional staff here at politics prose. it's been a real pleasure working them and and their efforts and making tonight possible so thank you thank very much all right let's get started i've got my copy it's a signed copy as well. i encourage you to do take the opportunity and do that later on as well towards the end. you know, this is your seventh solo author book. i hope i'm not messing up the numbers here. that's a lot. and as you those who have written a book and even those who haven't come probably imagine every book has own

story. and it's a little bit of a story in and of itself about why. what's the motivation, writing it. and, you know, how that all came together. so i was just to get us warmed up. you could tell us a little bit more about the story of the origin of this and why you decided to write and how you went about it. great question then. thank you for that. yes, it it is the seventh solo authored book and as i've written and when i this book, i was sort of in between books, the number six book had been done and i was looking for the next book project and november 9th, 2016. and that was the day after the 2016 election at about 3 a.m., i started working on this book actually. i was working on a on a blog post that, that posted later that morning about the shock of the 2016 election. donald trump's defeating hillary clinton up in the popular vote, but in the electoral college and

this was a shock that was felt around country and around the world and nobody really had anticipated no pollster, no pundit. the press certainly had not anticipated hillary clinton defeat. and so so i said to at about 3 a.m. writing a blog post that said essentially that for the news media today is an awful lot like 1948. and that was a reference to the famous or infamous dewey defeats truman election of 1948 when thomas the republican governor of new york, was the hands down favorite win election that year. all the polls, all the pundits, the press all said that dewey was going to defeat harry truman, the incumbent president who became president franklin roosevelt's death in 1945. and so the two elections seem to be very close and at least in shock value. and that's when i began thinking

this book, what became this? and it was it was over the course of, i guess three and a half years between that idea that night and the time when the book was published by university of california press that so sort of relatively fast timeline is or a book which is based on academic research and but talks to a variety of audiences as well because you know that's one of the things i really do like about it. it's it's it's full of detail an interesting sort of historical facts and comparisons, but it's also really, really accessible and you know, kudos to you for being up at 3 a.m. after the election. i was up at 3 a.m., but i wasn't writing a book i think many of us can relate to that sort of feeling. someone's me that she was in tears that that early that morning and and was pleased to know that somebody went to work right at you know they say three hour wow i that's what you do you know you're good i get to do

something do something about it so as i said you know the book really of charts the history of what you call polling surprises or polling failures. i mean, using both of these terms throughout the book, it goes chronologically in 1936 and then onward. but i think, you know, for a few minutes, let's maybe start from the and without really giving too much of a spoiler this new updated does have a chapter on the 2020 election and then it goes on to talk a little bit about what's happening this year and 20 for this new election cycle, which i think, you know, presenting pollsters, journalists, analysts with, again, new different challenges and maybe present and the kind of landscape. and i just want to read a little bit of indulge me in this from the final part of the book.

so towards the end you say so what to expect in 2024 from the interplay of polls pollsters and journalists. it's not farfetched at all to expect surprise. not if the recent past is revealing in meaningful ways. but whatever happens, whatever polling controversy arises, it may not be a rerun of 2020 or 2016. voters 2024 are well-advised to regard election polls and poll based predictions with skepticism and you know what you seem to suggest here is that what matters isn't, just polling per se, but how we interpret it, how we understand how it's reported, how it's framed. so i was just wondering if, you could tell us a little bit more about what role do you see polling playing in this cycle with what's happening around all of us this year? the polls this year, as they have in all presidential elections, since perhaps 36,

even before, do set the narrative. they set the narrative for the news media. they set the narrative for pundits and they set the narrative for the public at large. this is how we understand the dynamics of of a presidential election campaign. who's ahead, who's behind? what's the gap? what's the what's the difficulty that the candidates are facing, so forth? so polls really do establish the narrative and they already have they already have this year in 2024. what the polls are showing so far is that this is shaping up this year as a tight race between trump, the former president, biden, the incumbent president, and this an unusual election in that regard. but the polls consistently since september since, mid-september have shown trump with a slight lead. this is the collective polling average by real clear politics on a daily basis and they show they showed trump with a very. narrow lead. so that tells us i think that consistently through the past and a half months that we're looking at a likely looking at a

very tight election in 2024. so the polls are setting the narrative as they typically always now if there is polling misfire, there's a polling failure. we're not going to have probably the same sort of polling failure that we had in 2016 when a few states, the midwest, were thought to be pretty secure. and hillary clinton's camp. but they went to trump very narrowly. i'm talking wisconsin. michigan and pennsylvania. and those states tip the election, the electoral college to trump and that pundits anticipated and those states that the polls in those states being off and that's what happened that was the key to that polling misfire in 2016 and 2020 it was different many the polls thought that joe biden was going to win by a healthy margin. he won popular vote by four and a half percentage points. some polls, cnn had him up by 12. quinnipiac university had him up by 11. the wall street journal nbc news

poll had biden by ten points. so these these polls are anticipate hitting a double digit rout of donald trump. it didn't turn out that was a much election. in fact, it was so that the well-placed of 43,000 votes in arizona, georgia and wisconsin would have produced a269269 electoral college tie. and you can imagine what that would have done to the country in 2020 on top of of covid and urban rioting and just general upheaval to an election that ended in a tie. that would have been an awful outcome. i think so. i think we can anticipate if there is another polling misfire, it's not going be of the same order of 2016 or 2020 or of 1948, for that matter. any websites, polls, services that you're watching closely that you think you know and is a lot of i must say as well, like in recognizing all of these challenges, there is a lot of

sympathy. pollsters in this book as well and how difficult their job really has become over this last few years. so any any places where you think, you know, there might be somebody doing something interesting different. yeah. i'm glad you mention that because it is a very difficult pursuit. polling is not easy. one analyst said. it's like a 15 on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of difficult, the polling difficulty to get it right is probably even higher than that. but pollsters don't do this. they don't take the time, energy and spend the money to get it wrong. they're hoping that they're right and to to that end they have been and they have been experimenting with methodologies over the last years since 2016, since the surprise of 2016. and then again since the the 2020 election to their their moving around with different kinds of ways of tapping into public opinion the gold standard

the former gold standard of random digit dial calling has sort of gone by boards. i mean, it's still used by some pollsters, but there are also other different attempts to different techniques to to tap public opinion in a presidential. now, whether those are going to work and be successful in terms of, you know, getting close to the to the outcome remains to be seen so pollsters wouldn't be going through all this experimentation if. they didn't have a problem that they're trying to resolve and one one way that they're trying to do this is through what are called panels. they recruit panels, large numbers of people whom they can go back to on a number of to ask, you know, have have them complete the polling questionnaire. so whether panels really the future of polling it is a an element certainly an aspect of the future of polling. but to answer your question about what am i looking at one of the sites that i do on a

daily basis is real politics. and they have a polling average that they update daily. and the polling average today show trump was ahead of biden by 1.6 points. this is this is a collection, an averaging a number of of polls are done in the country. and on a regular basis. so 1.6 points is not a very healthy lead, but it's not a lot anything could happen. and it sounds and plus, we're you know, we're than eight months out before the before election day. so yeah, a lot can happen. glad they're still getting people to pick the phone. i mean that's you know, that's like the first barrier and there are so many more after that in terms of accuracy, so on. so i'm people, you know, who are here with us tonight will have more questions about what's happening year and are going to be interested in take on that. but i do want to take a step back a little bit now and think, you know, the other the kind of

historical trajectory that the book explores when it relates to polling. and, you know, it's important, i think, to just clarify, this is a book about this isn't a book about polling methodology or do you know you've been talking quite a bit about it and and clearly and you do that a bit in the book. well, albeit in a very excessive way, as i was i was saying earlier. but really, this is a history of the relation shape between polling and the news. and, you know, the citizenry as intended as voters or readers and and, you know, one of the aspects that i think is most enjoyable, the book is that while talk about numbers, you also talk people and some those people are colorful characters. and with, you know, distinct egos, you know, thinking they were, you know, doing their job right. and sometime staking pretty sort

of drastic decisions in how they were doing their work, whether would be continuing to do polling after a certain in the cycle if they thought that one of the candidates was ahead. and so so i'm just wondering you out of all of the different characters, there are many in the book that you you mentioned talk about whether there are any pollsters or other characters that are some of your favorites, maybe some anecdotes you'd like to share with us. yeah, that's a great question. thanks. you know, in doing this book, i was really struck by the fact nobody had tried to do this before that a book about polling failure in presidential elections had, you know, had never really been attempted. and one of the neat things about it is, you suggesting, phillipos, that there are a number of colorful characters, quite a few colorful characters who turned up in the book. and some of them are worthy of their own biographies. i think george gallup, for example, he was he was the sort of a founding father of

contemporary or modern opinion research. and he has this reputation of being a real and he died in 1984. his a reputation of being a real avuncular character, open and warm, you know, and, you know accessible and often quoted. and it's sort of like the founding father of opinion research. but you look a little closer to george gallup was a real prickly guy and was he was inclined to attack his critics openly, harshly, unrelentingly and. this really had never come through before. and what i had been able to research about about the history of polling and presidential elections. so i was digging around in the archives at the gallup organization archives at the university iowa. and i got i was this guy was really going the handle of his critics not once or twice. but, you know, many times so he

was he was certainly one of the more colorful characters. another one is a contemporary of gauss's elmo roper, who was a failed jeweler in iowa who became got into market research in new york and public opinion became a sort of a spinoff of that work that he did. and he was he was an election pollster, but he had a lot of reservations about polls and he wasn't really a big fan it as gallup was and he was he was a real tepid kind of supporter polling and one reason is it cost him a lot of money to do election polls. his bread and butter from commercial clients, industrial clients and and consumer consumer opinion. that's where he was really most at home. but elmo roper is one of those founding fathers as well, a founding figures in polling, research and another and perhaps my most favorite character in

the book is a guy named warren metcalf. he was the polling director at cbs news and was a great innovator in in polling and opinion research. he he developed or helped develop random dial telephone calling, which possible polling at an accessible way that, you know, people wouldn't have to go door to door anymore to go to opinion research could reach people by phone and that was a real breakthrough in polling because it it accessible and less expensive. he also warren metascore also was a it was the founder father, if you will, of exit polling, which is when pollsters and their representatives asked people about their voting preferences as they're the polling place on election typically. and that was that quite an innovation too. and kotowski also had an interest in the history of polling, and unlike many pollsters and figures in opinion research who are all always, it seems, looking to ask you is

inclined to look back from time to time. and he kept on his wall an image of the famous photograph of harry truman holding up the chicago tribune. that's the banner headline dewey defeats truman the 1948 election, which is probably the most single, most memorable photograph in political history. and kotowski it on the wall, a wall and and said at the 50th anniversary of that of that election failure, of the polling failure, there's a lot of room, he said, for humility in polling every time, you get cocky, you lose. and sure enough he's he's right. so i think my is a very interesting character but none of them gallup kotowski has been the subject of a full length biography rather interesting and i'm not going to do it. i'm not going to do the biography. this that would take six years. you know, living with these guys. i don't think so. yeah. i mean, some of that advice you

know, would be true in politics as well. i mean, that kind of reality check, um, when you were talking about humility is interesting. so we have caller for collectors on this side some other colorful characters though on the journalistic side of things as well. and i think that's the other, you know, quite amusing at times element in the book as well. you talk quite a bit about what you call paul bashing journalists some of you know some of these columnists just built their reputation for having strong on polling and i just again you know reading a small quote in the book one of the figures you talk about in mike royko newspaper columnists in chicago who in one of his columns invited to lie in opinion polls, none of us have ever done that right right, because he called pollsters a hired brain picker, trying to

figure out what your personal fears hopes and prejudices are so that he can advise a politician how to more skillfully lie to you. that may be radical advice. i'm not going to, you know, vouch for that, but today would be your advice to, based on the research you've done, what went into the book to citizens and voters when it comes to navigating trying to navigate all of this, you know, the poll bashing among journalists was pretty commonplace up until 2004 and then it stopped the last real poll bashing journalist was jimmy breslin, the newsday columnist. he was well-known figure, a pulitzer prize winner. and in that election in 2004, john kerry versus george w bush, bush was the. jimmy breslin went after the pollsters almost the same with the same vigor that mike royko did in chicago that you quoted a

moment ago. and he said that this is essentially just lies because they're not reaching people had cell phones in 2000, four, cell phone use was growing, but it wasn't quite the way it had expanded today. so most pollsters were polling people via cell phones in 2004. and jimmy breslin thought that was just insane was ludicrous. and and said so. he also predicted that john was going to win the election by an easy, easy margin, didn't turn that way in 2004, but that was it after 2004, there doesn't seem to be much in the way of of high profile poll bashing by journalists and one of the reasons for that was the emergence of data journalism. and that was best represented by nate silver, who founded fivethirtyeight.com and then the 2008 election could predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in that election between obama and mccain. and that was quite a quite a

feat. and nate silver topped that in 2012 when he predicted outcome of all 50 states in the obama mitt romney race. so that's one reason i think that that this poll bashing phenomenon has disappeared because there's this the rise of data journalism in a prominent way. silver is the most well known, but he's not the only data journalist out there. so it's it's i fully expected to find more and poll bashing in contemporary times but that's not been case so i think i don't know to your question about how how should people respond to polls. i don't think that they should take them as prophecy. polls are not gospel, but, you know, they deserve to be checked out and looked at and the and the variety of polls that we have today. i mean, just dozens in the course of or more than that. of course, in the course an election season, people should take a look at them. but treat them as okay, this is

how it's going be. i think there should be certain a certain wearing this should attach to polling because. the recent past tells us that are not going to be spot on and we shouldn't expect them to be. and of course, you know, a lot of organized news organizations nowadays or so partner with polling opinion to run their own polls and on you know that sort of builds a certain type of relationship it certainly does on a certain of coverage as well and that's where another innovation award, the skew whom i mentioned a moment ago, he was the director of cbs poll operations and partnered with the new york times in the mid 1970s to begin this association between news organizations and polling. so news organizations moved polling big time starting in the seventies, and it continued to be. some of those relationships have shifted the years and of them do their own own polling.

others are you know contracted out essentially but they news organizations are big time into polling cnn is their wall street journal abc news, the washington post, nbc news, you know, up and down the they're major media organized nations are big time and the polling so yeah it's that wedded nature of the relationship is is really really strong these days still you find journalists who are very suspicious about polls and about whether we should even be doing this. even now, there's some some hesitation about whether this is the right thing for journalists to do. are we making news or are we just reporting the news. and it's still it's an interesting debate. i think the debate has been settled that we're not news we are you reporting the news in a different kind of way because this is important information to have and in a democratic republic. who's ahead and who's behind? i mean, this is this is not this is not just trivial stuff here. i think that's you know, is

certainly a kind of highlighted an important aspect there when trying to make the distinction between, covering the news and making news. and, you know, what's the role of all of these partnerships in all of that. and one thing that i think is interesting as well as that you've seen over the years this model, you know, that was the originated in the united states being exported to other organizations and other news organizations in other as well. so, you know, have partnerships in european countries between polling institutes, newspapers, for example, that would publish. but in sort of in different systems in, different democratic systems as well. one thing that's interesting to consider is not everybody welcome, the publicizing of polling right until election day. and i it's interesting to think about it because the really kind of takes a longitudinal look at our relationship with polling

the press has a relationship with polling as and so you know if we look outside the united states, there are a number of around the world, many of them european countries that will ban the publication of opinion polls, either a few days before then. you have extremes like my own native country of italy, the bonds, the publication of polls two weeks out of election day, the argument there being this is just informing people's choices is shaping people's choices. so, you know what's your view around that, as you know, i think it's it's difficult for us to. think about elections without polling. but we did have elections without polling. polling came around, although that would have been maybe a different politics, just, you know, almost 100 years ago now, you know, is there something for is there something to be learned

from kind of models? i mean, they might not necessarily apply directly to the american case, but what's your take on that? yeah, a number of a number of elements there. for one thing, in the united states, a ban on publication of polling data would be running up against the first amendment. real quickly. so that would sort of be unconstitutional if some agency or entity were to forbid news organizations and others from reporting polling, it just wouldn't work. i mean, it would be a first amendment violation pretty clearly. plus, if you stop polling two weeks out, it's almost like, why bother? i mean, because the that's the window. often, not always, but often when decisions are made, voters make make up their minds as to which way they're going to go, especially if there's a large number of undecided voters, which we have had in some elections 2016, for example, there was a sizable number of undecided voters. and in the end, in the last couple of weeks or even the last few days, many of them in key states, wisconsin pennsylvania,

michigan, tipped to trump rather than hillary clinton and was a major outcome. so polling and pollsters don't always remember this lesson. they ought to continue polling as latest possible right up to the final before the election. now, some of this is complicated because of of early and so forth, but it's i think it's very important to understand that the dynamics of the electorate do shift late the game late in the late in the campaign and people's minds do get shifted and do do change. so you're banning polls from published or released in the last two weeks before the election? it's kind of like, well, like, why bother? why bother? i mean, you're missing the key elements here, or at least you risk missing those key elements. and i think, as i said earlier, it's important information as to i mean, elections are about who wins and who loses essentially. right. that is and who's ahead and who's behind.

that's an important information data point for for people in a democratic republic. so i don't see any any reason at all we should consider ignoring banning polls, you know, at any point in the election, in an election, there is a misunderstanding. i believe, too that that polls shape. i think that's more folklore than reality. i mean, you might examples of people who say, yeah, i decided to jump on the bandwagon again at the last minute because i wanted to be with the winning that not to be the case. it doesn't seem to be a lot of good persuasive evidence that that that is indeed what happens. and these days in an era of close elections we haven't had a landslide in this country since when ronald reagan in 1984 and or george h.w. bush in 1988. i mean, it's been a time since we've had a landslide election. so this is this is an era of tight elections, and it's also a

polarized electorate. there are people on either side and. they're not inclined to be moved one way or the other. so, you know, i think we're going to be looking at a tight election and it's it's important to know who's who's ahead, even if that's the case. and so far, you know, as of late march, trump seems to have a very narrow advantage, but he's sustained that advantage mid september and that tells something to that's important information to have for an electorate that is on you know i think as talking about sort of the potential implications and effects of polls i'm also about, you know, how difficult it is to forecast who is actually going to go vote and what effect the information might have on on that decision. and even more so than maybe, you know, am i going to vote for one candidate rather than another one? and then, of course, all of the detail that goes into, you know,

what national level polling saying versus what swing states polls are saying. and some of them being so close or having a high number of undecided voters or, a high number of people who haven't decided they will vote or not. and, you know, i think we could sit here and talk about it for much longer. but i do want to hear from everybody else who's here with us tonight. so. as we've been instructed. we'd love to hear from you and there is a microphone right here behind you. you are sitting over there. you might not be able to see it. it is right behind this column if you want to ask a question and you want to line up and you know where we're heading for you. could you ask the could you ask the questioners to identify themselves? sure. please tell us your name. yes, my name is for the first time since ross perot. we have a credible party

candidate. what do you think are his chances of winning? and given how close the race is, if he acts as a spoiler, who will he benefit? great question. thank you. thank you, david. you're talking robert f kennedy jr. of course. yes. i think the chances of winning the election is next to none. i don't think he has much of a chance at all, but he as a third party candidate could could tip the election or tip the outcome one way or the other. and i think that as of now, most of the reading by pundits and and others suggest he's probably taking more support from biden. he is from trump, of course, could change one thing that is probably going to change is the level of support for. robert f kennedy jr which i think as today was like 14 percentage points. and in the real clear politics overall polling average. i think that that number as the election draws nearer is is

likely to decline to shrink. and that's been the case with. most third party candidates in the united states over time. you mentioned a ross perot who indeed did have a pretty sizable showing in the 1992 election. and it's still debated today whether he siphoned more support from george h.w. or bill clinton. but still, he was a i think he was an unusual example. well, most third party candidates lose support as election draws near because people just don't want to feel like they've lost their vote and that they're wasting their vote on somebody who has no chance of winning. and i think that i think that robert f kennedy probably faces the same dilemma that he's he's not going to win. and his and his support is going to shrink as election day gets closer. of course, we can say that six months out or eight months out, and we don't know. and it's like a lot of these predictions, we just don't know until after the election. what do you think about the accuracy of gambling odds

compared to polling? it's an interesting question. you. thank you. i haven't seen that that that sort of the gambling market is is the answer to polling failure? i don't think that that's the that, you know, we're going to. oh, okay. we'll see what the gambling markets are saying. and we'll go that way. it's an intriguing it's intriguing option for sure. probably keeping in mind and watching. i don't think it's going to be it's not the oracle for for 2024. well, he's the david right. he's not that far from my question. okay. please convince me that polling is worth anything right. you're saying i mean, it's like, why do i want to someone to tell me today the future well polls you're telling me way way way you're telling me that they do not predict and you're telling me worse than that you're

telling me. it doesn't affect people's opinions. so what is it? it's not. and this is my opinion that we are just deep into this commercialization of news media to get more eyeballs, to make into a play, you know, like in all sports, like all the betting, who's going to win in this tennis? i don't care. i want to watch the match right. so it's a game. they turn it into a game. you called it a game and then you drop them. i said, no, it's not a game. it's a campaign, you know. yeah, all these to me, if you go deeper into telling me why someone is saying they are supporting and then get a little bit, but in country with the bad education that we have you going to ask them why are you voting for trump. oh i think you so strongly. it's very strong. is very strong. okay, good. that gives me a good indication of what your thoughts are into

what our government should be. what should we, etc. okay, let me let me to unpack some of that. it's, it's important to underscore, i'm not a pollster. i don't do polling i'm not. i know. okay. but pollsters i mean, there's there's multiple parts to answer here. pollsters don't do work with the expectation of getting it wrong. they devote a lot of time and energy and scientific analysis to their work and they get it wrong often. but it's not something that they intend to do. they at it with the expectation that they're going to get it right. also, it's like, what else do we have? what else is there out there? if we didn't do polling and media critic jack shafer pointed this out a year or two ago, if we suddenly banned the polling

and rid of polling, what would we be left with? we'd be left with impressionistic observations. well, what do need impressionistic observations like? okay, how many yard signs are there out there? well, count the yard signs for for one candidate or another or. maybe we should count the number of people who show up at a rally and see if that's the way to to judge support for a candidate. or maybe we just send people out, journalists into the street and do shoe leather journalism, which is which is a fine way to find pursuits. it's been done for many years, but it's no substitute for polling nor is counting yard signs, nor is counting audience sizes. so polling is is is an attempt to get a representative sample of what's going on in the country at a particular moment in time. now, it's often called a snapshot in time. i am really impatient with that characterization because given

number of polls, we have those snapshots arrayed together are going to give us a panorama of polls and they tell us something. they tell us important things as to who's ahead, who's behind and why and i think that's very important to to understand that. so sunday. yeah. okay. so fine. if you want to wait until election day for, that answer, that's absolutely your choice but i think it's also important for for the electorate to understand that there is a lot that's going on and that polling is is is a scientific method to reach an estimate that's not my line but it's a great line and i like that line a lot. so i think that if if we can keep that in mind and that it's not a prophecy that we should be wary about polls, but not ignore them altogether and realize what else there, you know, should journalism isn't the answer. just a quick just shoe leather journalism isn't the answer. it's not counting yard signs. it's not counting people

counting noses at a at a rally. that's not the way we're going to be able to assess. you know how this election or election is likely to turn out? it's certainly helpful to think about it as an approximate nation, which it is. i mean, no pollster will come along and tell you, you know, this is the full this is 90% of the story and this is how accurate can be. and but it is an indication of where the country is going and that way, you know, not thinking about not waiting, not having to wait and, having that sort of scientifically informed impression. i mean, again, it's not certain to know what up. it's not predictive in the sense of knowing who is going to turn out and who's going to turn out and still do. and pollsters are very very impatient with the notion that their work is predictive. i think that they should get over that and say, yeah, it is prediction, especially late in the late in the campaign, the last two weeks before an election that starts to get into prediction territory. and i think that pollsters should embrace that.

but they tend to be really disinclined to that disinclined to do that they want to because feel that this is you know more estimate than than then prognosis prognostication. thank you for making that point. i mean i think we will want to listen from our our other friends here as well. i'll take that compliment. thank you i was bring my name is james. i have never voted or republican not because i've never vote because i'm not american. but i am. there are as you said, i just listening in the bookshops. you said something earlier that some there has been a landslide. landslide since like his w 1988. and when we looked things like when we looked at like 1988 or we looked at like 1980 like 1980, reagan a landslide, obviously, because jimmy carter seen as weak and things like and all that. but when we at 2008 where george bush or republicans were like heavily blamed for the like the economy crashing obama did win by a lot but he never wasn't

even by like even his w margins which was slimmer and we look it's like where are your opinions on trump? i think it's argued that he he did make a lot of mistakes in the pandemic. and obviously that probably clinched election for biden, but it was still fairly close by, like 10,000 votes in several swing states like why do you think these landslides just don't seem to be possible? is the polarization or is it something else entirely? great question. thank you. i do think it's polarization. largely, the country seems to set into two different camps and that middle ground is very, very narrow, seems be anyway. but of course, you know, pollsters in in 2020 thought that biden's some of them cnn and quinnipiac, among other prominent pollsters, thought biden was headed for a landslide victory. know ten percentage points or more is essentially shorthand for a landslide. and you're right. we haven't seen that since 1988. bill clinton won eight and a half percentage points in 96. that's close to landslide dimensions.

but that really wasn't so the last time we saw a ten point victory or more was was back in the early late eighties. so i do think it's part of this period that we're in that that people's views are really solidified on one side or another. now, this is not to say that it's always going to be like that, that there's no chance of a landslide ever happening again. i mean, they do. and sometimes the 1980 case that you mentioned with with jimmy carter and ronald reagan, that was a that was a polling failure in which the all thought that that was going to be very close election. they thought that jimmy carter had a real chance of defeating reagan right up until the last. and it turned out that reagan won by a landslide that no pollster saw coming. and it was it was quite a quite a surprise it could happen. but in this era in the last, what, 30, 40 years, it hasn't happened. and not likely this year. i just have one more thing and then that's it. but why do you think this polarization has happened? like i remember like reading a

rick perlstein book, like there would always be like democrats for eisenhower. democrats or reagan, stuff like that. like you don't really see you never you rarely. i suppose you have the lincoln project that's probably a twitter thing. you never really see like them swinging like for other primaries or you don't ever see like democrats or trump or like republic. i suppose. maybe, but like, just don't see this much bipartisan or kind switching around as much. you don't. you're right you're right. although there is some effort, i think by the biden camp to to woo nikki haley voters. now whether that's going to be very successful or not, i have my doubts. i really don't see that that nikki haley supporters if they're republicans and some there was some crossover in primaries and some democrats voted for her in in some primaries but i don't see republican who supported nikki haley going for biden. i really don't not in any great numbers. and not to not to to find you know, republicans for biden there might be some, but it's going to be real muffled moment, i think, out there if happens at

all. that's a very interesting, really interesting point on this year mean on strategy more so which again does is something the book gets a little bit into about the other consequences and implications falling. it's not just about what we read in the it's also about what campaigns do, what they decide to do, where they think there might be an opportunity for them versus, you know, where they don't think it's useful to, invest on where they place their money where they place their funds in the 20, 20, 2022 midterm. the new york times is, a great job of reporting this. the patty murray campaign. senator patty in washington state, look as if she was in some trouble to win reelection that year. and the polls were a few polls in washington and were not very good, as it turned out, but it looked for a time like she was, you know, in the low double the low single digits, you know, two or three percentage points over her republican rival. and so there was shift of funds away from, you know, that back to her campaign to make sure

that she was going to win this and and she not support other or did not extend the funds to other democratic candidates elsewhere as she had in the past or as it turned out, she won easily by a landslide like six percentage points or so. and these polls were terribly off base, but it does demonstrate just how polling numbers can shift. strategy and tactics similar to you know susan collins of maine and and what up and more recently as well as well as i think this year democrats relieved with enough so maryland will be a state they need to worry about. but you know that's another story. yes. and i see friend has been up for some time, but let me just say, maryland is a great story because know larry hogan came sort of out of nowhere mean he was a two term governor, but like, oh, wow, he's going to run for senate. my goodness. and that that has really shaken up this race. you bet he has were terrified. just what's your name? what's your name? caroline poplin and i'm a liberal democrat. always have been.

and we're looking for those republicans who worked for trump, the white house, and now say that would be a catastrophe and he never we need those people out there for biden among among republicans, you know, you're there is a you know, working for trump not been a real good career move for many for many people that's that's indeed the case. well, they've been horrified and john bolton is one of them. mark milley. yeah. and you there is a it's a not an insignia accent list, but i don't see folks going out there and vigorously campaigning for joe biden. maybe they will. i hope so. and i don't know if they have much a constituency to bring along, too. that's that's a great point, actually, just to not to interject. but if of you watched anthony scaramucci was on with christiane amanpour last night, that's maybe you know, we watched the same program. yes. and you know, he was very vocal about how they're going to be out in the fall and campaigning

against donald trump. and but your of you know, what's the following and what votes are they going to move. i'm not sure. so it's a good point but i really did have a question. oh, right. i thought you were going to share those. fine. i mean. oh, i can keep going. but and i was a little bit late, so you may have already talked about this. you talked about data journalism and fivethirtyeight. i at fivethirtyeight, occasionally, it seems me it's just a list of weighted polls. is there something else involved? nate silver, who was the founder of fivethirtyeight, has has moved on from from 538. okay. it's it's now is that abc news that owns fivethirtyeight and so the so the ownership has changed and the management has changed. so it's a defensive team. okay. and it's a different entity than it was from what it was when.

what's data journalism as opposed to polling? it's when you use data and collect data from public sources to to inform and to shape your your reporting and. it's it's not far from but it's it's the way that nate silver ran at fivethirtyeight. it was polling plus it was more than polling. and so he would he would take all these polls and sort of crunch them through his through his model and then add other elements as well. and, you know, run these simulations as many hundreds of times, come up with the projections. they were not failsafe. but he he succeeded often enough, enough to be something of a rock. and in data. and it does it it doesn't work that way anymore. well, in 2016 he he missed on five states and thought that hillary clinton was going to win those states. and donald trump won them. i think he a i think he said there was like a 10% chance of a

split decision. and by that is, a candidate wins the popular vote. but the electoral college and that's what happened. so that 10% option, i guess or possibility came true 2016 and it almost came true in 2020. you know, as i said earlier, trump was within a few thousand votes. he hasn't won a popular election in some. the republicans haven't won since since bush in 2004. the popular. 50, 50% or more. thank you. okay, guys have won. thank you. yeah, i see a couple more questions. let's see if we can get them all in before the top of the hour. when joe, one thing i was hoping you'd mention more would be the impact of artificial intelligence. since so much of this is now data analysis and that nate silver can run through 100 or so simulation wins or 200.

you know, a.i. can do that in a split second. so what you see for now, for 2024, will be the impact of artificial intelligence and in the future in 2020. it's a great of fortunately or unfortunately my book research ended before i off in a big time way and i really don't have a good answer for you on that. it. thank you. thank you. is that a possibility because i do not after the election or tonight. i'm bruce so so i don't support what trump about about election integrity but can you talk about 2016 and how polls missed in the real in which your take on that because was a consideration with you know at the end hillary saying that she was going to dispute some of the stuff and

investigate what's going on in the rural communities in those three states and with the russians involved and you talk about that and what you're taken on that there isn't much in the book about that it's it those states were very close. michigan, pennsylvania, very, very close and close enough to to wonder, to raise some questions about it. there was a a movement in in congress when when congress meets to certify the there was some effort to try to challenge those returns. and, you know, joe biden, then the vice president, president, the senate, you know, cut it off and said, don't this is this is a done deal. we're not going to we're not going to go there. and i think, to his credit he, you know, kept that from from really exploding in a big time way. i don't know. i don't think that there was a lot of persuasive evidence that that that that that would have swung the the outcome in those states.

but that is a topic i really didn't get into in the in the book. and if i can just adds in do see anybody looking at that now for for this election the what's going on in the rural communities polling or the voter integrity or in the rural communities. i don't know. i mean i think there's rural communities largely tend to be trump territory and and so and and they've long been republican too in many places in many states. but it seems this election might come down to maybe seven states, seven swing states, including the three that i've mentioned a number of times. well, as georgia and and maybe north carolina and, maybe arizona, nevada. so you come up with, you know, maybe seven states where this election is going to swing. and that's it kind of rules out the rest of in some respects. but but that's where the electoral college outcome may may well be determined. and that's that's judging from

the last two elections, that's where it's where the outcome was determined in 2016 and 2020. yeah. and this, you know, this close elections like we've been having over the last couple of really kind of compound those problems for polling. i think of the stories that's maybe sort of unreported. if you want to go down from a 3% to a 1% margin of error in your poll, your costs go up exponentially. so who's going to pay for that? that's also, you know, part of the package and why and why why spend the money to go rent from 3 to 1%? i mean, it's it's it's i don't know. i mean, you might want to do it, but it is costly and time consuming. do i think we have our final question? question which is going to be the hardest question? all pressure. thank you. yeah, i'm palestinian. this reason this states came five and obviously palestinian community the arab american community the muslim community

in these battleground states because there are a lot of arab americans michigan in pennsylvania, in ohio, both candidates are not good for palestine by the trump or biden. so it is this is so but they may not vote you know they're uncommitted michigan a hundred thousand people are uncommitted. so how do you see that playing out? i think biden is very worried. michigan in particular less so about ohio, which seems to have become a pretty red state in the last two or three elections until the last two or three presidential elections. it in what, 2000, four? it was it was these decisive state, but it no longer is very purple. it's pretty red. so i think i think ohio is pretty much in the in the trump camp, pennsylvania is i don't know i don't know if if if the dynamics are quite as as dramatic as they seem to be unfolding in michigan. and the biden camp is very

concerned about that. and as and as of now i think that there's a slight lead by trump michigan of course it's very early and we don't have many polls in these in these battleground states in these swing states we have far national polling that's going going on than than swing state polls. but but as the election draws closer have more and more of those but that tends to be a problem that we have fewer and fewer swing polls that tell us, you know, how these decisive states are going to are going to turn out and it can be a real problem for for predictions or forecast or estimates of the outcome. well, thank you. thanks, everybody for your questions. i think, you know, maybe find an opportunity to reconvene after this election and talk about polls. that'd be wonderful. maybe three days afterwards we can get together and thanks, everybody, for being here. and i know our friends of politics and process thank you. thank you, joe.